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Weekly outlook | NFP data to guide markets despite ongoing holiday season
Updated Updated Tue, 2025 January 7 05:58
Important events this week:
This trading week will start with the NFP data as the most important news event for the week. Furthermore, also the FED meeting minutes from the December meeting might offer momentum, especially with the holiday season still being present. In general traders should be careful as erratic moves during this time with thin liquidity might still happen.
– US- ISM Services PMI – The purchasing manager index is expected to rise slightly after a disappointing number last month. The figure still shows a positive trend and also remains well above the 50- level, which remains a key driver of the US economy. Meanwhile stock markets start 2025 in a sideways pattern. A look at the S&P 500 index might show a potential correction towards the 50- moving average based on weekly charts.
If the price is not able to break above the recently created all- time – high a correction might be on the cards. On the other hand, in particular a positive result could also cause the upside momentum to continue. The index will be published on Tuesday, January 07 at 16:00 CET.
– US- FED meeting minutes – The meeting minutesof the Fed aren’t likely to move markets. Though, some surprise news might cause the Dollar to act volatile. Chairman Jerome Powell pointed out, that the Central Bank is only likely to cut rates twice this year. Traders had taken the news positive, opening fresh Long- Dollar positions. The minutes will be published on Wednesday, January 08 at 20:00 CET.
– US (Nonfarm Payrolls) labor market report – With 154.000 newly created jobs the NFP data is rather expected on the lower end. Seasonal input might still offer some impact here. The previous data from December had shown that 227.000 jobs had been added to the economy. The strength of the Dollar continued during the first trading days in 2025. Yet, the GBPUSD price chart might offer a slight retracement moving forward.
With the support line at 1.2315 being near, the currency pair might be ready for a retracement higher. A weaker reading might support positive momentum in this currency pair, based on the weekly chart. The figure will be released on Friday January 10 at 14:30 CET.
– CA unemployment rate – The unemployment rate in Canada had seen a rise in the month of December. With the data now hovering at the 6.8% level, the CAD might face more seatbacks ahead. The USDCAD is interesting to watch.
The daily chart shows, that a breakout to the upside could follow given the recent trend and the continued weakness of the Loonie. On the other hand, a better-than-expected number might cause the pair to fall and retest the support zone at the 50- moving average area. The figure will be released on Friday January 10 at 14:30 CET.
